Manuscript Title:

MILK PRODUCTION FORECASTING IN INDIA USING ARIMA AND VAR TIME SERIES MODELS

Author:

MONICA. S, KAVITHA. S, SARANYA. V

DOI Number:

DOI:10.5281/zenodo.13808731

Published : 2024-09-23

About the author(s)

1. MONICA. S - PhD Research Scholar, Department of Statistics, Periyar University, Salem-11.
2. KAVITHA. S, - Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics, Periyar University, Salem-11.
3. SARANYA. V - PhD Research Scholar, Department of Statistics, Periyar University, Salem-11.

Full Text : PDF

Abstract

Milk production is an essential component of India's agricultural farming system; despite the area's capacity for milk and dairy products, there is always a high demand for milk and milk products among the general public. From 128 million tonnes in 2011 to 463 million tonnes in 2040–41, milk output has surged. For many years, India has maintained its top spot in the production of milk. In India, the dairy industry is expanding at a 10% annual pace. However, no long-term studies have been conducted in the area to anticipate the volume of milk production. As a result, the purpose of this study The study's goal is to determine the best forecasting technique for milk production in order to have an impact on both future production sustainability and public policy. Secondary data were utilised in the study and were gathered from NDDB (1991 to 2022) and FAOSTAT (1961 to 2022). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) models were utilised after the stationarity of the data had been verified using the Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF). According to the findings, ARIMA was shown to be a better model for (1, 1, 1) appropriate when using the SPSS programme to forecast milk. 463 million tonnes of milk are anticipated to be produced by 2041.


Keywords

ARIMA, Milk production, Vector Autoregression (VAR), Forecasting.