Manuscript Title:

EXPLORING THE ECONOMIC RIPPLE EFFECT OF CLIMATE-INDUCED DISASTERS: A CAPTIVATING EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION ACROSS SOUTH ASIAN NATIONS

Author:

Dr. MUDASSAR RASHID, MUHAMMAD NAVEED TARIQ, and Dr. ATEEQ UR REHMAN IRSHAD

DOI Number:

DOI:10.5281/zenodo.10686013

Published : 2024-02-10

About the author(s)

1. Dr. MUDASSAR RASHID - Associate Professor, Department of Economics, COMSATS University, Islamabad.
2. MUHAMMAD NAVEED TARIQ - Graduate Student, Department of Economics, COMSATS University, Islamabad.
3. Dr. ATEEQ UR REHMAN IRSHAD - Assistant Professor, Deanship of Educational Services, PRINCE SULTAN University, Saudi Arabia.

Full Text : PDF

Abstract

Climate disasters are becoming more frequent as the world's climate gradually changes. There is growing fear that as a result of climate change, weather events will occur frequently and severely. Disasters' long-term impacts and the repercussions of the subsequent policy decisions made by decision-makers are still not much effective. This study examines disastrous effects of economy circumstances by discussing how a disaster affects the uncertainty of economic policy (EPU), inflation and interest rates in addition to the impact of a calamity on output. An econometric panel Vector Autoregressive model using local forecasts is used for getting detail insights of the relationships between the variables of the models. Findings shows that EPU is linked to policy uncertainty behavior towards spending on disasters as an economic condition. Disaster-related outages have extra effects on the EPU. There was a negative correlation between catastrophe costs and outcomes. Production would be reduced as a result of the tragedy and there would be a brief rise in inflation. For the policy makers, this knowledge would be critical in the long term for creating stable policies that can be adjusted to climate change and natural catastrophes


Keywords

Climate Damages, Disaster Cost, Economic Policy Uncertainty, Vector Autoregressive, Panel Data, South Asia.