Manuscript Title:

CHOICE OF OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY RULES WITHIN THE DSGE FRAMEWORK- THE CASE OF PAKISTAN

Author:

AMIR RAFIQUE, AYESHA NOREEN, Dr. ATHER MAQSOOD AHMED, Dr. GULZAR KHAN, MUHAMMAD UMER QUDDOOS, MUHAMMAD ADEEL, ARSLAN AHMAD SIDDIQI

DOI Number:

DOI:10.5281/zenodo.10453792

Published : 2023-12-23

About the author(s)

1. AMIR RAFIQUE - Associate Professor, Department of Management Sciences, COMSATS University, Islamabad.
2. AYESHA NOREEN - PhD Scholar, Department of Economics, School of Social Sciences and Humanities, NUST, Islamabad.
3. Dr. ATHER MAQSOOD AHMED - Professor, Department of Economics, School of Social Sciences and Humanities, NUST, Islamabad.
4. Dr. GULZAR KHAN - Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, School of Social Sciences and Humanities, NUST, Islamabad.
5. MUHAMMAD UMER QUDDOOS - Assistant Professor, Department of Commerce, Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan, Pakistan.
6. MUHAMMAD ADEEL - MS Scholar, Department of Commerce and Finance, Government College University, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan.
7. ARSLAN AHMAD SIDDIQI - General Manager, Institute of Industrial and Control System, Karachi, Pakistan.

Full Text : PDF

Abstract

Purpose: The objective of conducting this study is to scrutinize more effective monetary policy rules for developing countries like Pakistan. In addition, to determine whether the monetary policy would have been more welfare enhancing had the interest rate been utilized as the policy rule instead of money supply in a calibration analysis of Pakistan’s monetary policy transmission mechanism. Design/Methodology/Approach: Calibration analysis was conducted for quarterly data from 1992Q3 to 2017 Q2 based on Pakistan Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, using parameters of the Taylor rule and the money supply rule. Findings: Counterfactual experiments by using money supply as an optimal policy instrument were undertaken in the study that the money supply rule increases volatility in output and inflation. On the other hand, volatility in inflation and output was fouund to be minimal in the Taylor rule implying that the price rule outperforms the money supply rule and it converges to a steady state. Implications/Originality/Value: The outcome of the present academic exercise is, fortunately, consistent with the rule being followed by the State Band of Pakistan. Even though a rare outcome this has to be the case in all policy areas.


Keywords

Monetary Policy, DSGE Framework, Stochastic General Equilibrium, Monetary Targeting Approach.