Manuscript Title:

NEXUS OF FISCAL DEFICIT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN

Author:

NOOR UL ISLAM, MUHAMMAD NAZIR, SHAMSUL ISLAM, AFSHEEN QASIM

DOI Number:

DOI:10.17605/OSF.IO/S9FM2

Published : 2023-03-10

About the author(s)

1. NOOR UL ISLAM - Department of Management Sciences, University of Peshawar, Pakistan.
2. MUHAMMAD NAZIR - Lecturer Higher Education Department, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Pakistan.
3. SHAMSUL ISLAM - Department of Management Sciences, IMSciences, Peshawar Pakistan.
4. AFSHEEN QASIM - Department of Economics, Institute of management Sciences Peshawar Pakistan.

Full Text : PDF

Abstract

The main objective of the study is to analyse the nexus between fiscal deficit and economic growth. In order to address this objective a comprehensive literature has been reviewed which presented different other intertwined factors resulting impact due to fiscal deficit thereby economic growth. Data of GDP Growth, Fiscal Deficit, Public Investment, Inflation Rate, Exchange Rates and Debt to GDP Ratio has been collected from World Bank, State Bank of Pakistan and Ministry of Finance Pakistan for the period 1981-2022. Due to the time series nature of the dataset, initially the trend in the dataset has been analysed which confirmed the presence of trend for all the variables in the study. After confirming the trend, next to it unit root test has been performed to test the stationarity in the dataset. The results revealed that there is a unit root in the dataset at level for each variable. Apparently, co-integration test has been performed in order to check if there is or are any co-integrating equations for the data. The results revealed the presence of two cointegrating equations in the dataset. Because of the co-integrating vectors, VECM has been performed to normalize the effect of co-integrating equations. Additionally, the VECM provided both the short run and long run effects of the variables. Both the long and short VECM model outcomes revealed that the fiscal deficit, Public Investment and inflation rate holds a strong negative impact on economic growth while exchange rate and debt to GDP ratio has a strong positive impact on economic growth in the long run.


Keywords

Fiscal Deficit, Economic Growth, Empirical Evidence, FDI, Public Investment, Pakistan.