Manuscript Title:

IMPACT OF IFRS 9 STANDARDS ON DEFAULT RISK: APPLICATION TO THE AMERICAN CONTEXT

Author:

WIDED KHIARI, AZHAAR LAJMI, AMIRA NEFFATI, HAYTHEM YAHYAOUI

DOI Number:

DOI:10.17605/OSF.IO/7S2B4

Published : 2023-03-10

About the author(s)

1. WIDED KHIARI - Associate Professor, University of Tunis, Institut Supérieur de Gestion of Tunis, GEF2A-Lab.
2. AZHAAR LAJMI - Associate Professor, University of Tunis, Institut Supérieur de Gestion of Tunis, GEF2A-Lab.
3. AMIRA NEFFATI - Assistant Professor, University of Tunis, Institut Supérieur de Gestion of Tunis, GEF2A-Lab.
4. HAYTHEM YAHYAOUI - Master Student, University of Tunis, Institut Supérieur de Gestion of Tunis.

Full Text : PDF

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to test the impact of integrating forward-looking information in risk assessment, specifically to estimate customer default risk. To determine the potential impact of adopting IFRS 9 standards, we use a credit portfolio of an American institution, containing data covering the period stretching from 01- 01-1989 to 01-01-2020. In this paper, we propose a method to highlight the incorporation of the Forward-looking” variable, based on economic scenarios, in the calculation of default probabilities. Our results show that an adverse scenario reflecting a future deterioration of economic conditions will surely lead to an increase in current customer default. While a favorable scenario will lead to lower default probabilities. This has been proven by integrating the economic adjustment coefficient (EAC) into the calculation of default probabilities. The paper contributes to the literature by adding knowledge on the relationship between default risk and IFRS 9 accounting standard.


Keywords

IFRS, IASB, dynamic provisioning, credit risk, prudential regulation, and default risk.